Monday, October 12, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) - Update #038

 


for Monday, 12 October 2009 [1:50 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 11 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 038

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 12 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #058
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) making landfall over Hainan Island...Stormy weather prevailing.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to weaken into a TD after crossing island and exiting the Gulf of Tonkin. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows PARMA moving into the Gulf of Tonkin tonight or tomorrow...and dissipating over Vietnam tomorrow evening or on Wednesday Oct 14.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation particularly its rainbands remains over Hainan Island and portions of Western Guangdong. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] has started accelerating ENE across the Western Pacific Ocean.
    Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon October 12 2009
    Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 110.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 35 km (20 nm) WSW of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 75 km (40 nm) SE of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 125 km (68 nm) NE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
    Distance 4: 505 km (272 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Gulf of Tonkin
    Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Oct 12
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Mon Oct 12
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Mon Oct 12
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 19.6N 109.6E / 55-75 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 20.0N 108.2E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 13 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 20.5N 105.5E / 35-55KPH (TD) / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 12 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.1N 110.8E.
    *TROPICAL STORM (TS) PARMA MAINTAINED TS INTENSITY, TRACKED ON
    A MORE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY AND IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON HAINAN.
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION
    IN THE NORTHERN PORTION CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
    BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW AND CURRENT POSITION IS
    BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. TS PARMA IS SOUTH OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED IN SOUTH CHINA AND IN AN AREA
    OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 111200Z
    UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM HAIKOU, ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF HAINAN...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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