Friday, October 30, 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) - Update #012

 


for Friday, 30 October 2009 [12:54 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).


MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012

12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #015
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has slowed down as it tracked more WSW-ward...threatens Central Luzon and Bicol Region including Metro Manila.

    *Residents and visitors along the Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remained slightly the same...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon on Saturday. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 180 km. North of Naga City around 11 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass close to Polillo Island around 6 AM Saturday and make landfall between Infanta, Quezon and Baler, Aurora around 9 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Nueva Ecija around 10 AM - passing very close to Cabanatuan City and will move across Tarlac around noontime...and over the Zambales Mountains around 4 PM Saturday. On Sunday, November 01, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea and will make its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. This system will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has regenerated and strengthening as it moves closer to Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The outer rainbands of MIRINAE has started to spread slowly across the Bicol Region - deteriorating today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Fri October 30 2009
    Location of Eye: 15.6º N Lat 128.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 570 km (307 nm) NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 605 km (327 nm) NE of Legazpi City
    Distance 4: 635 km (343 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 650 km (350 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
    Distance 6: 710 km (383 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 7: 755 km (408 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
    Distance 8: 760 km (410 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
    Distance 9: 825 km (445 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    165 kph (90 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WSW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
    Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap #03 (for Public): 12 AM PST Fri Oct 30
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 PM Thu Oct 29
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 PM Thu Oct 29
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON & POLILLO ISLANDS.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, IFUGAO & ISABELA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves)
    .

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.4N 126.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH
  • 8 PM (12 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.3N 124.2E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 15.4N 119.3E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 28 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 15.0N 113.3E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) THU 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.7N 129.4E.
    *TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE) HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AS IT
    TRACKED WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
    RIDGE TO THE NORTH. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    HAS REGAINED THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARED TO HAVE DIMINISHED
    DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS 12-HOUR OBSERVATION. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
    A 291019Z MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED FROM A
    DVORAK CI ESTIMATE OF T5.O FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
    MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM ITS MESOSCALE
    ANTICYCLONE. TY 23W IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
    LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS...
    (
    more)

    >> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky WayName contributed by: Korea.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 PM (14 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.2N 128.5E / WEST @ 22 kph / 150 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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