Thursday, October 15, 2009

TS 22W (UNNAMED) - Update #004

 


for Thursday, 15 October 2009 [5:57 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 15 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TS 22W (UNNAMED)


22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 15 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm 22W (UNNAMED) continued its fast-westerly track towards the Philippine Sea...just passed south of Guam...likely to become a dangerous tropical cyclone early next week.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 22W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to start turning more to the WNW and slowing down w/in the next 24 to 36 hours upon approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Saturday morning Oct 17 as a Category 1 Typhoon w/ winds of 120 kph...and shall turn back to its westerly track towards Eastern Luzon on Sunday Oct 18. 22W shall rapidly grow into a Category 3 Typhoon on Tuesday Oct 20 in a track that could bring it to Northern Luzon on Wednesday or Thursday. *ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Sur early Thursday morning, Oct 22. It shall be approaching Hainan Island on Saturday evening Oct 24. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving rapidly to the west. Its eastern outer feeder bands now moving away from Guam and Southern Marianas - improving weather conditions expected. Western outer feeder bands beginning to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands - where stormy conditions can be expected beginning this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) continues to move West across the South China Sea...strong ITCZ affecting Northern and Central Luzon where scattered to widespread rains can be expected...currently located near lat 12.1N lon 117.0E...or about 350 km West of Coron, Palawan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West @ 26 kph towards Vietnam. This system has become weak and the chances of becoming a Tropical Cyclone while over the South China Sea is poor.


    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
    Time/Date:12:00 PM PST Thu October 15 2009
    Location of Center: 11.9º N Lat 142.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 275 km (148 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 580 km (313 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 850 km (460 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 4: 1,895 km (1,025 nm) East of Samar, PH
    Distance 5: 2,135 km (1,153 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    70 kph (38 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 90 kph (43 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 40 kph (22 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    T2K TrackMap #002 (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Oct 15
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Thu Oct 15
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 12.5N 141.4E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 28 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 13.2N 138.4E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 22 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 14.6N 134.1E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 09 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 15.6N 132.2E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 11.6N 144.7E.
    *TROPICAL STORM 22W MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY FAST TRACK WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A WELL-
    DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO
    DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TROPICAL UPPER
    TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A
    REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND FROM A
    RADAR POSITION REPORT FROM NWS GUAM. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    NORTH OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST'S) WELL IN EXCESS OF
    28 DEGREES CELSIUS...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 22W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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