Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) - Update #021

 


for Wednesday, 21 October 2009 [6:39 AM PST]

click to get RSS data
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 20 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 21 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #028
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has started moving slightly WSW-ward towards Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands expected to reach the area tonight or tomorrow.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast track has changed significantly with a much slower pace. The typhoon is now expected to decelerate as it tracks more WSW w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT decelerating more as it approaches the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction. LUPIT shall make landfall over the coast of Northern Ilocos Norte, near or over the town of Pagudpod early Sunday morning Oct 25 or approx. 2-3AM, & shall pass just to the north of Laoag City approx. 8-9 AM (Sun Oct 25). By early Monday morning, Oct 26, LUPIT shall be moving slowly across the South China Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit, then move NW to Northward into Taiwan or SE China. This scenario is likely as some models deviates from the abovementioned forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast has increased, so a possible shift  can happen. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn  to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: LUPIT's Eyewall Replacement Cycle has ended, now shows a large eyewall, with still a cloud-filled EYE...its over-all circulation has slightly improved. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Extreme Northern Luzon beginning tonight or tomorrow - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 21 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.3º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 565 km (305 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 645 km (350 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 670 km (362 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 4: 685 km (370 nm) NE of Ilagan City
    Distance 5: 720 km (390 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 6: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Laoag City
    Distance 7: 870 km (470 nm) NNE of Naga City
    Distance 8: 920 km (497 nm) NE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    160 kph (85 kts) near the Eye
    Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
    Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WSW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Wed Oct 21
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 21
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES ISLAND GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, KALINGA & ISABELA.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN AURORA, & POLILLO ISLAND.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbes 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 10 feet.


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 20.2N 126.4E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 19.7N 125.0E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WSW @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 19.0N 122.9E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 04 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 18.8N 122.0E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 04 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 21 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.5N 127.9E.
    *THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
    CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY
    22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
    MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE STORM CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND A
    201709Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES THAT A NEW LARGE EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED
    FOLLOWING A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
    TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO
    A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS,
    INCLUDING THE JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS, DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND
    POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
    PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT
    72 HOURS. THREE OF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS, JGSM, NOGAPS, AND GFDN,
    HAVE ABRUPTLY SHIFTED FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. A SECOND SET OF
    SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET MODEL, SHOW THE TYPHOON
    CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A NEW SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN
    FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
    PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY
    ANALYSIS OF A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
    TY 22W AND A ZONAL MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH. THUS, THE
    CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-RUNNING MODEL
    SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST MAY BE
    NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTINUE TO SHIFT
    IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
    DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER
    NORTHERN LUZON...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 20.5N 127.6E / WEST @ 15 kph / 175 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    Recent Activity
    Visit Your Group
    Give Back

    Yahoo! for Good

    Get inspired

    by a good cause.

    Y! Toolbar

    Get it Free!

    easy 1-click access

    to your groups.

    Yahoo! Groups

    Start a group

    in 3 easy steps.

    Connect with others.

    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: