Tuesday, October 27, 2009

TS 23W (UNNAMED) - Update #003

 


for Tuesday, 27 October 2009 [6:19 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS 23W.


23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • 23W (UNNAMED) strengthened into a Tropical Storm...now passing close to Guam, as depicted on Andersen Air Base' Doppler Radar.

    *Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 2 days...under the influence of the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon with winds of 215 kph...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday afternoon, Oct 31 and crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night...and exiting the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands lashing the Marianas including Guam...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can be expected across these islands. 06 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue October 27 2009
    Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 145.7º E Lon
    Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) ENE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,160 km (628 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 2,310 km (1,248 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    06 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
    Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST tue Oct 27
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Tue Oct 27
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 14.6N 143.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 15.3N 140.8E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.5N 135.3E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.6N 130.1E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 27 OCTOBER POSITION: 13.6N 146.9E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER
    A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO
    DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE 06Z FORECAST
    SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY WAS LESS THAN 35 KNOTS, SO WITH THE
    DEVELOPMENT SEEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    STILL AT 35 KNOTS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN SHOW A 04 MB
    PRESSURE FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
    SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSON AIR
    FORCE BASE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING ALONG THE
    WESTERN SIDE OF TS 23W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
    UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES
    TO WRAP INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTH
    OF TS 23W. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, IS DIGGING
    SOUTHWARD AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LINK UP
    WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, CAUSING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST. IN
    TURN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAPID
    INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS TS 23W TRACKS OVER A
    REGION OF WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
    OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
    THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
    (
    more)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 23W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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