Wednesday, October 14, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) to make landfall over N.Vietnam today... [Update #043]

 


for Wednesday, 14 October 2009 [5:42 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG)


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 043

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #065
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • PARMA (PEPENG) starting to weaken as it approaches the shorelines of Northern Vietnam...downgraded to Tropical Storm.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to make landfall ESE of Hanoi this afternoon or noontime. It will dissipate rapidly later tonight as it tracks overland across Northern Vietnam.

    + Effects: PARMA's main core is off the coast of Northern Vietnam. Its Eyewall has weaken but still affecting the coast...with the EYE deteriorating some 50 km. away from the shoreline of Northern Vietnam...Tropical Storm conditions (winds of not more than 100 kph) can be expected throughout the day. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) is now along the SE coast of Samar Island...w/ its rainbands ahead of its center, covering the whole of the Visayas & Bicol Region...currently located near lat 10.8N lon 126.0E...or about 120 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph Leyte & Northern Visayas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow or Friday.

    (2) Tropical Disturbance 94W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming west of Marshall Islands and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24-48 hours...currently located near lat 10.0N lon 153.0E...or about 970 km ESE of Guam...1,970 km East of P.A.R...2,995 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 13) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westerly into the Philippine Sea, this weekend, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Wednesday, October 21 and striking Isabela-Northern Luzon Area on Thursday to Friday (October 22 to 23). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 14 2009
    Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 107.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of N.Vietnam's Shoreline
    Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    100 kph (55 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Wed Oct 14
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Wed Oct 14
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 14
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 20.6N 106.8E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 05 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 20.8N 106.2E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 05 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 20.9N 105.5E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.4N 107.4E.
    *PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
    TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. ALTHOUGH
    SOME CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN
    SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A
    SINGLE BAND, WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131153Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE STRONGLY
    SUGGESTS AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST SURROUNDING THE
    LLCC. THE CENTER HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
    HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGED FROM HAINAN ISLAND IT REDEVELOPED
    VERY QUICKLY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND MODEL GUIDANCE
    WERE SLOW TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
    REFLECT THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE DOES NOT
    REFLECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A
    CORRECTION TO AN INCREASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
    IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 19W
    WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS TS 19W TRACKS
    INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION, AND
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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