Monday, October 26, 2009

TD 23W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

 


for Monday, 26 October 2009 [5:56 PM PST]

click to get RSS data
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on this new system, TD 23W.


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED) intensifying as it nears Guam and the Marianas...may become a Tropical Storm later tonight.

    *Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to turn westward within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 125 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially north of it. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
    Location of Center: 12.8º N Lat 149.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,530 km (825 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 2,685 km (1,450 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-125 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
    Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Oct 26
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Mon Oct 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 13.4N 147.3E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 14.1N 144.6E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 14.7N 138.9E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 14.9N 133.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 26 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.7N 149.9E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE  BANDS
    CONSOLIDATING TOWARDS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
    DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO OVERCAST DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
    AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER
    TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
    THE FORECAST PERIOD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT THE EXTENDED
    TAUS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE
    MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE THAT IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK
    FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER. EGRR IS LEFT OF THE PACK
    FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LEFT OF
    CONSENSUS...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 23W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    Recent Activity
    Visit Your Group
    Y! Groups blog

    The place to go

    to stay informed

    on Groups news!

    Cat Groups

    on Yahoo! Groups

    Share pictures &

    stories about cats.

    Yahoo! Groups

    Small Business Group

    Improve your business

    by community exchange

    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: