Tuesday, October 27, 2009

TS 23W (UNNAMED) - Update #004

 


for Tuesday, 27 October 2009 [12:15 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS 23W.


23W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 27 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / NWS-GUAM DOPPLER RADAR FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm 23W (UNNAMED) continues to organize as it moves away from Northern Marianas.

    *Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon & Visayas (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate and improve. Its rainbands has started to move out of the Marianas...improving weather conditions expected beginning tonight...Gale-force winds w/ light, moderate to heavy rains can still be expected across these islands troughout the day. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 25 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 30 to 80 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially to the north. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 27 2009
    Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 144.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) NNW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 2,135 km (1,152 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    70 kph (38 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 90 kph (43 kts)
    12 to 18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-80 mm
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 995 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST tue Oct 27
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Tue Oct 27
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 14.9N 142.4E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 28 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 15.7N 139.5E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.5N 134.1E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.4N 128.8E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 24 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 27 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.1N 145.4E.
    *CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER ROTA, MARIANA
    ISLANDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA SUPPORT THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
    OF 35 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE WINDS AT GUAM AND
    SAIPAN INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS
    STILL FAIRLY SMALL. WINDS AT ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE GUAM, SHOW
    WINDS AT 40 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ARE
    APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB.
    CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AN
    AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
    AS TS 23W HAS TRACKED OVER ROTA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE
    TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE
    PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST REQUIRED
    FOR TS 23W TO BE MAINTAINED AS THE LLCC ORGANIZES..
    (
    more)

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    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 12-18-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 23W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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