Thursday, October 15, 2009

TS 22W (UNNAMED) - Update #005

 


for Thursday, 15 October 2009 [5:40 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 15 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TS 22W (UNNAMED)


22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 15 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm 22W (UNNAMED) maintained its fast-track towards the west and into the Philippine Sea...intensifying slightly...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 22W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to start turning more to the WNW and slowing down w/in the next 24 to 36 hours upon entering the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W intensifying into a typhoon...as it makes a very slow NW turn on Saturday and Sunday (Oct 17-18)...this is due to a passing middle-latitude low pressure (trough) north of it. Then, on Monday Oct 19th, the typhoon shall resume its westerly track towards Northern Luzon. 22W shall rapidly grow into a Category 4 Typhoon w/ winds of 215 kph on Tuesday Oct 20th. *ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela-Cagayan Area on Wednesday late afternoon, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Provinces early Thursday morning, Oct 22. It shall be approaching Hainan Island on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 24-25). Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving rapidly to the west. Its eastern outer feeder bands now moving away from Guam and Southern Marianas - improving weather conditions expected. Western outer feeder bands beginning to spread across Ulithi and Yap Islands - where stormy conditions can be expected beginning this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) continues to move West across the South China Sea...strong ITCZ affecting Northern and Central Luzon where scattered to widespread rains can be expected...currently located near lat 12.1N lon 117.0E...or about 350 km West of Coron, Palawan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving West @ 26 kph towards Vietnam. This system has become weak and the chances of becoming a Tropical Cyclone while over the South China Sea is poor.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date:6:00 PM PST Thu October 15 2009
    Location of Center: 12.3º N Lat 141.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 400 km (215 nm) WSW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 470 km (255 nm) NE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 685 km (370 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 4: 1,845 km (995 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 5: 1,965 km (1,060 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 42 kph (23 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    T2K TrackMap #003 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 15
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Thu Oct 15
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 12.7N 138.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 13.3N 135.9E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 17 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 14.2N 133.1E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 05 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 15.2N 132.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WNW @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 15 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.1N 142.2E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
    MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO
    THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
    TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH,
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES (T2.5) AND RJTD (T1.5) DUE TO THE IMPROVED
    CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE (EVIDENT IN A
    150400Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE). TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK
    SPEED AND TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 96, TS 22W
    SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REBUILT
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE
    SEA, SUFFICIENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT AND EXCELLENT OCEAN
    HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG
    TYPHOON...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 22W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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