Saturday, October 24, 2009

TS LUPIT (RAMIL) moving away from Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #030]

 


for Saturday, 24 October 2009 [6:29 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 24 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 030

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #040
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) continued moving ENE away from Extreme Northern Luzon...heading towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

    *Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking ENE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the east of it. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT accelerating NNE or NE into the mid-level westerly windflow and also starts weakenening as it enters an area of increasing wind shear (strong upper-level winds). The core shall pass about 215 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on early Tue Oct 27th and exit PAR. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued struggling as dry air affects the system. The deteriorating core has remained at sea, ENE of Batanes. Outer rainbands spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon bringing light to moderate rainfall w/ gale force winds not exceeding 60 kph today. 12 to 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 24 2009
    Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 3: 695 km (375 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 4: 815 km (440 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    100 kph (55 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
    24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: ENE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
    T2K TrackMap #026 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 24
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Sat Oct 24
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 24
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN & BABUYAN ISLAND.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: REST OF CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE & APAYAO.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more
     

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 20.8N 125.0E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NE @ 09 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 21.7N 125.6E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NE @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 23.4N 126.9E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NE @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 24.7N 128.7E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / ENE @ 07 KPH 

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 24 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.9N 124.4E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
    WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST AND A 231820Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LACK
    OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS
    HELPED TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING LUPIT
    TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH LOW
    CONFIDENCE, ON THE PGTW POSITION FIX AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY.
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND
    PGTW. TS LUPIT SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING
    INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD,
    IT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, LUPIT IS
    EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
    DECOUPLE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STARTS TO BECOME INFLUENCED
    BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW..
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 20.1N 123.6E / NNE Slowly / 105 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=LUPIT)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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