Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) approaching Northern Vietnam...[Update #042]

 


for Tuesday, 13 October 2009 [5:45 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG)


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 042

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 13 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATELLITE FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) moving slowly WNW closer to the coast of Northern Vietnam...slightly intensified...High winds and heavy rains expected.

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NEPARTAK.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to turn Westward later tonight before striking the coast of Northern Vietnam...making landfall ESE of Hanoi tomorrow morning. It will abruptly dissipate tomorrow afternoon or evening while over Northern Vietnam.

    + Effects: PARMA's main core is now approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam. Its Eyewall is almost along the coast...with the EYE still 100 km. away from the shoreline of Northern Vietnam...Typhoon conditions (winds of more than 100 kph) can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) remains weak while moving across the Philippine Sea, closer to Eastern Visayas...currently located near lat 10.0 lon 129.5E...or about 510 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph towards Eastern & Central Visayas. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 1 to 2 days.


    (2) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] becoming Extratropical as it continues to accelerate NE across the Western Pacific Ocean.
    Click here to view the Final T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 13 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 107.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 230 km (125 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    Distance 2: 120 km (65 nm) ESE of N.Vietnam's Shoreline.
    Distance 3: 165 km (90 nm) NW of Dongfang, Hainan Is.
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    130 kph (70 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Tue Oct 13
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Tue Oct 13
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 13
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 20.1N 107.0E / WSW @ 11 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.8N 105.8E / WSW @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 19.5N 104.7E / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.1N 108.0E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF PARMA. THE COMBINATION OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH
    THE SYSTEM UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, PRO-
    VIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND INTERACTION FROM LAND HAVE HELPED TO
    MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP-
    MENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH VIETNAM WILL
    BEGIN TO HINDER LOW LEVEL INFLOW, WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY
    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24, WITH
    RAPID WEAKENING AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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