for Tuesday, 16 September 2014 [8:09 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KALMAEGI (LUIS) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 16 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 16 September 2014
Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) has slightly gained strength as it bears down the coast of Eastern Hainan...expected to bring typhoon-force winds and heavy rains across Northern Hainan and Leizhou Peninsula of Southern China.
This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms along the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, the western coast of Zambales, Bataan and Pangasinan, Lubang Island, Palawan including Calamian Group, and the countries of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Southern China especially Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam. should closely monitor the development of Kalmaegi (Luis).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the East Coast of Hainan Island (near 19.5N 112.0E)
About: 190 km east-southeast of Haikou, China...or 255 km southeast of Zhanjiang City, China
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 160 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Cloud-based, in diameter]: 1,515 km (Large)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 25 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 28 kph
Towards: Hainan Island-Leizhou Peninsula Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be crossing in betweem the northern coast of Hainan Island and the southern part of Leizhou Peninsula this morning...and will traverse the Gulf of Tonkin this afternoon. The typhoon will then make landfall over Northern Vietnam, over or very near Halong Bay late tonight or early Wednesday morning...passing very close to the north of Hanoi, Vietnam before sunrise. By early Thursday morning, Kalmaegi will be over the mountains of Southwestern China.
TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will slightly weaken within the next 06 to 12 hours as it traverses the landmass of Hainan and Western Guangdong...weakening further into a Tropical Storm (TS) by early Wednesday morning...and dissipating into an area of low pressure by early Thursday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 95 kph by early Wednesday morning.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...just a TS...about 65 km east-northeast of Hanoi City, Vietnam [2AM SEP 17: 21.2N 106.5E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over the mountains of Southwestern China...just an area of low pressure...about 590 km west-northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM SEP 18: 22.4N 100.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 16, 2014
Location of Center: Near 19.5º N Lat 112.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km ENE of Qionghai, China
Distance 2: 345 km SW of Macao, China
Distance 3: 385 km SW of Hong Kong, China
Distance 4: 550 km ESE of Halong, Vietnam
Distance 5: 915 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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