Friday, September 12, 2014

TD 15W (LUIS) Update #002


for Friday, 12 September 2014 [7:25 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014

Tropical Depression 15W (LUIS) has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it races across the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...gaining a little bit of strength. This cyclone is now posing an impending threat to Luzon...and the potential landfall area shall be over Aurora-Isabela on Sunday evening, Sep 14.

This depression could enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao through the weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of 15W (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 15W (Luis)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.7N 133.6E)
About: 920 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 1,015 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 150 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 440 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 42 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 24 kph
Towards: Central Philippine Sea


TD 15W (Luis) is expected to move west-northwestward swiftly during the next 24 hours...slowing down through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TD 15W will be moving across the central portion of the Philippine Sea by early Sunday morning.

TD 15W (Luis) will be gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 100 kph by early Sunday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move WNW across the east-central part of the Philippine Sea...about 535 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM SEP 13: 15.1N 128.9E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slows down slightly while over the central part of the Philippine Sea...and continues to gain strength...about 310 km east of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM SEP 14: 16.1N 125.0E @ 100kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Western Isabela as it traverses Northern Luzon as a Typhoon...about 25 km west-northwest of Ilagan City, Isabela [2AM SEP 15: 17.3N 121.6E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 12, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.7º N Lat 133.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 985 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 1040 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 1070 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 1125 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1265 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF








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