Saturday, September 13, 2014

TS KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #005.


for Saturday, 13 September 2014 [1:39 AM PhT]


Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) has maintained its track and strength while threatening Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over Southeastern Isabela on Sunday evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more...


As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the east-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.7N 129.8E)
About: 530 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 605 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 335 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 15 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Evening [between 7PM-10PM PhT]


TS Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to move generally west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the central and western part of the Philippine Sea by Saturday evening...and will make landfall along the eastern shores of Southeastern Isabela, in between Palanan and Casiguran, Aurora on Sunday evening.

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph before it makes landfall on Sunday evening.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it turns WNW across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 245 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM SEP 13: 15.0N 126.3E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Just along the eastern shores of Isabela...starts to make landfall...strengthens a bit...about 45 km south of Palanan, Isabela [8PM SEP 14: 16.6N 122.4E @ 130kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, away from Northern Luzon...about 330 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM SEP 15: 18.4N 117.5E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 12, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.7º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 580 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 605 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 660 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 715 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 870 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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