Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #004

for Friday, 12 September 2014 [7:26 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (LUIS) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) has strengthened further as it moved generally westward during the past 6 hours...threatens Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over Isabela by Sunday evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more...

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS KALMAEGI (Luis)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 130.6E)
About: 615 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 690 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 100 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 335 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 16 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) is expected to move west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon as it approaches the eastern shoreline of Isabela.

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Sunday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it turns to WNW across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 400 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM SEP 13: 15.0N 127.8E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Gains speed slightly while moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...strengthens into a Typhoon...about 220 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM SEP 14: 16.6N 124.1E @ 130kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the Northwestern border of P.A.R. after traversing Northern Luzon and emerging over the West Philippine Sea...weakens slightly...about 180 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM SEP 15: 18.5N 118.9E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 12, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.8º N Lat 130.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 665 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 690 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 750 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 800 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 950 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS KALMAEGI (LUIS)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm