Saturday, September 13, 2014

TS KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #008


for Saturday, 13 September 2014 [7:34 PM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) has resumed its west-northwesterly track while maintaining its strength over the central part of the Philippine Sea...increases its threat to Northern and Central Luzon including the Bicol Peninsula. The potential landfall area shall be over the eastern shores of Central Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Mindanao this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more...


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.0N 126.9E)
About: 320 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 530 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 65 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Early Evening [between 5PM-8PM PhT]


TS Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to move generally west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...and will make landfall over Eastern Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening...crossing Northern Luzon through early Monday morning.

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon later tonight or Sunday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph on Sunday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it bears down the coast of Eastern Isabela, prepares to traverse Northern Luzon...about 100 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM SEP 14: 16.8N 123.3E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Acceleraing WNW across the West Philippine Sea as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...weakens slightly...about 295 km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM SEP 15: 18.5N 117.8E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies as it traverses the South China Sea...approaching the Leizhou Peninsula of Southern China...about 185 km southeast of Zhanjiang City, China [2PM SEP 16: 20.4N 112.0E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 13, 2014
Location of Center: Near 15.0º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 405 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 430 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 530 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 575 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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