Sunday, September 14, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #011


for Sunday, 14 September 2014 [1:44 PM PhT]


Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) has swiftly moved closer to Northern Luzon during the past 6 hours with its west-northwest track...endangering more the area. The potential landfall area shall be over the eastern shores of Northern Isabela by this afternoon, Sep 14.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Mindanao.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon. should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy to Extreme Rains (50-100 mm or more): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong to Very Strong Winds (gusts of 75-100 kph or more): Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the west-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.8N 123.2E)
About: 85 km east of Palanan, Isabela...or 140 km northeastt of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 165 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 610 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 32 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 30 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Afternoon [between 1PM-3PM PhT]


TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to continue moving swiftly west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be making ladfall over the eastern shores of Northern Isabela just north of Palanan this afternoon (between 1-3PM), and will cross Northern Luzon until midnight. It will then traverse the West Philippine Sea and moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning on its way to South China Sea.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will weaken slightly after traversing the mountain ranges of Northern Luzon and will regain strength while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 140 kph by Tuesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONNDAY MORNING: Moves across the South China Sea...after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 360 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8AM SEP 15: 19.0N 117.3E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Reintensifies as it approaches the southwestern coasts of Guangdong, China...about 55 km southeast of Zhangjiang, China [8AM SEP 16: 21.0N 110.8E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm while moving over Nothern Vietnam...about 140 km northwest of Hanoi City, Vietnam [8AM SEP 17: 22.2N 105.4E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 14, 2014
Location of Center: Near 16.8º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 205 km NE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 180 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 4: 205 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 425 km SSE of Basco, Batanes









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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