Friday, September 19, 2014

TS FUNG-WONG (MARIO) Update #006


for Friday, 19 September 2014 [9:16 AM PhT]


Issued at: 8:30 AM PhT (00:30 GMT) Friday 19 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Friday 19 September 2014

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (MARIO) has intensified slightly as it accelerates northwestward, moving closer to Northeastern Luzon. The storm is forecast to make landfall over Northern Cagayan late this morning. A major rainfall event may occur along Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections as the storm is forecast to slow down late Friday to Saturday while over Luzon Strait.

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with slight to moderate and heavy rains and thunderstorms along the western sections of Visayas and Southern Luzon this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Central and Northern Luzon, and Taiwan. should closely monitor the development of Fung-Wong (Mario).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Northern and Central Luzon including Northern Mindoro, Marinduque, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, Batangas, Cavite and Metro Manila. Read more...
  • Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Calamian Group, Southern Mindoro, Northern Panay, Northern Masbate, and rest of Southern Bicol. Read more...
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Northern Palawan, Southern Panay, Negros Occidental and Southern Masbate. Read more...


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Fung-Wong (Mario)
Location: Over the western part of the Philippine Sea (near 17.2N 123.4E)
About: 109 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela...or 190 km southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: Northwest @ 34 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon


TS Fung-Wong (Mario) is expected to move northwestward within the next 24 hours, slowing down while turning sharply to the north and north-northeast through 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will be making landfall over northeastern Cagayan at noontime and will cross northern Cagayan passing Aparri tonight and emerging over the northwestern part of Balintang Channel later. By Saturday early morning, the cyclone will be recurving slowly as it passes the Bashi Channel on its way to the southern tip of Taiwan.

TS Fung-Wong (Mario) shall maintain its strength within the next 24 hours and will slightly intensify through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Saturday night.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength...just along the western part of Balintang Channel...about 145 km west-northwest of Calayan Island [2AM SEP 20: 19.4N 120.1E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Traverses Southern Taiwan after intensifying slightly...about 75 km northeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM SEP 21: 23.1N 120.8E @ 85kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves across the East China Sea while maintaining its strength ...about 255 km east-northeast of Wenzhou, China [2AM SEP 22: 28.1N 123.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 19, 2014
Location of Center: Near 17.2º N Lat 123.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 255 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 186 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
Distance 3: 400 km NNE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 185 km NE of Casiguran Aurora
Distance 5: 224 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF








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