Monday, September 15, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #014


for Monday, 15 September 2014 [8:01 AM PhT]


Issued at: 8:15 AM PhT (00:15 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) has maintained its strength as it moves across the West Philippine Sea...nearing the Northwestern Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This storm will still continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon and Western parts of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon. should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (LUIS).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-100 mm): Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas and Northern parts of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro. Read more...

Strong to Very Strong Winds (gusts of 75-100 kph or more): Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Coastal areas of Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the West Philippine Sea (near 18.3N 118.7E)
About: 200 km west of Laoag City...or 195 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 665 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 75 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest to West @ 28 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 23 kph
Towards: South China Sea


TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to continue to move swiftly west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this morning (between 8-10AM)...will traverse the South China Sea in the general direction of Southern China-Northern Vietnam border.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will slightly intensify as it traverses across the warm waters of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Tuesday early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies slightly as it moves across the South China Sea...about 300 km south of Hong Kong, China [2AM SEP 16: 19.5N 114.2E @ 130kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it approaches the Northeastern shores of Vietnam...about 50 km southeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [2AM SEP 17: 21.1N 108.1E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression after treversing the mountain ranges of Vietnam, Laos and Southwestern China...about 570 km west-northwest of Hanoi City, Vietnam [2AM SEP 18: 22.0N 100.4E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 15, 2014
Location of Center: Near 18.3º N Lat 118.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 415 km SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 645 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 285 km NNW of Baguio City City
Distance 5: 315 km WSW of Calayan Island

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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