Thursday, September 18, 2014

TS FUNG-WONG (MARIO) Update #004


for Thursday, 18 September 2014 [8:52 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 18 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Friday 19 September 2014

Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (MARIO) has maintained its strength and faster speed towards Extreme Northern Luzon...forecast to reach the Northeastern Tip of Cagayan by Friday noontime or afternoon, Sep 19. A major rainfall event may occur along Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections as the storm is forecast to slow down late Friday to Saturday.

This cyclone is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms along the western sections of Visayas and Southern Luzon this weekend. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Central and Northern Luzon, and Taiwan. should closely monitor the development of Fung-Wong (Mario).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Portions of Albay, and Portions of Southern Quezon. Read more...
  • Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Luzon, Occidental Mindoro, Eastern and Southern Bicol Region, and Samar Provinces incl. Biliran Island. Read more...
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Rest of Visayas and Bicol, Romblon, Marinduque and Oriental Mindoro. Read more...


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Fung-Wong (Mario)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.4N 126.5E)
About: 310 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 480 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 800 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 33 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 28 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon


TS Fung-Wong (Mario) is expected to continue moving fast towards the northwest within the next 24 hours, slowing down as it turns slightly to the west-northwest through 36 hours...and could slow-down further while recurving northward on the remaining of the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will be traversing the northwestern-central part of the Philippine Sea tonight through Friday morning...and could be passing over or very close to Port Santa Ana in Northern Cagayan and across Calayan and Babuyan Islands in the Balintang Channel on Friday afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, the cyclone will be moving slowly just to the west of the Batanes Islands heading towards the Bashi Channel.

TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will slowly intensify during the outlook period...and could become a Typhoon (TY) on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 kph by Saturday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a strong TS as it moves across the Northern tip of Cagayan...about 30 km northwest of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM SEP 19: 18.7N 122.0E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves slowly northward, just west of the Batanes Islands, towards Bashi Channel...about 85 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [2PM SEP 20: 20.7N 121.1E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating north to north-northeastward across Yaeyama Island Chain, near the northeastern coast of Taiwan...strengthens further as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 110 km east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan [2PM SEP 21: 24.6N 122.6E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 18, 2014
Location of Center: Near 15.4º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 385 km NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 395 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 410 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 470 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF








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