Sunday, September 14, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #012


for Sunday, 14 September 2014 [8:14 PM PhT]


Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014

The cloud-filled center of Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) is about to make landfall over Northeastern Isabela, very near Maconacon, it bears down the Bay of Divilacan. The typhoon is expected to traverse Northern Luzon throughout the evening.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the rest of Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon. should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (LUIS).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy to Extreme Rains (50-100 mm or more): Most parts of Luzon including Metro Manila. Read more...

Strong to Very Strong Winds (gusts of 75-100 kph or more): Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Coastal areas of Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over Divilacan Bay, Isabela (near 17.4N 122.5E)
About: 45 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela...or 90 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 610 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon


TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to accelerate west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be traversing Southern Cagayan this evening (between 7-8pm),passing across Kalinga and Apayao around midnight...and across Ilocos Norte early Monday morning (between 1am to 2am). It will then exit Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Monday morning...and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Monday noontime or in the afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon, Kalmaegi will be making landfall anew over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will weaken further after traversing the mountain ranges of Northern Luzon and could be downgraded into a Tropical Storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. This system will regain Typhoon intensity while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 110 kph by Monday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moves across the South China Sea...after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 395 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM SEP 15: 19.2N 117.0E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies into a Typhoon as it approaches Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong, China...about 95 km south-southeast of Zhangjiang, China [2PM SEP 16: 20.5N 110.7E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm while moving over Northern Vietnam...about 135 km west-northwest of Hanoi City, Vietnam [2PM SEP 17: 21.8N 104.9E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 14, 2014
Location of Center: Near 17.4º N Lat 122.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km ENE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 100 km NE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 3: 125 km SSE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 220 km ESE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 225 km E of Vigan City









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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