Sunday, September 14, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #009


for Sunday, 14 September 2014 [1:53 AM PhT]


Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014

KALMAEGI (LUIS) becomes a Typhoon as it turns northwesterly during the past 6 hours. The potential landfall area shall be over the eastern shores of Central Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Mindanao this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm or more): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the west-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 15.7N 126.0E)
About: 295 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 420 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Early Evening [between 5PM-8PM PhT]


TS Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to resume its west-northwest movement, as it accelerates throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...and will make landfall over Eastern Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening...crossing Northern Luzon until early Monday morning...and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday evening.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph by late Sunday afternoon...and will decrease to just 125 kph as it starts to enter land.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Eastern Isabela, starts to cross Northern Luzon...about 20 km west of Palanan, Isabela [8PM SEP 14: 17.0N 122.2E @ 125kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Acceleraing WNW across the West Philippine Sea as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 455 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM SEP 15: 18.9N 116.6E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies as it traverses the South China Sea...just along the coast of Leizhou Peninsula, Southern China...about 45 km south-southeast of Zhanjiang City, China [8PM SEP 16: 20.9N 110.5E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 13, 2014
Location of Center: Near 15.7º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 370 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 380 km NE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 410 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 470 km E of Baler, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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