for Thursday, 11 September 2014 [9:13 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (Unnamed) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Thursday 11 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) had developed into a Tropical Depression and was given the code of 15W while moving towards the west to west-northwest across the open seas south of the Marianas. It is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) by tomorrow morning...will be locally named as "LUIS" when PAGASA issues its initial bulletin for this cyclone...and will be given internationally a name of "KALMAEGI" once it attains Tropical Storm intensity.
Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of 15W.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the current tropical cyclone.
Northern and Central Luzon, and Bicol Region.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TD 15W (Unnamed)
Location: Over the Northwesstern Pacific Ocean (near 11.2N 137.2E)
About: 1,285 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar...or 1,425 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 440 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 30 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 30 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 15W (Unnamed) is expected to continue moving northwestward swiftly during the next 24 hours...slowing down and turning to the west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TD 15W will just be moving across the central portion of the Philippine Sea as it heads generally towards Luzon.
TD 15W (Unnamed) will be gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 95 kph by Saturday afternoon.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move NW across the east-central part of the Philippine Sea...about 845 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM SEP 12: 14.2N 132.1E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down slightly...turns to west-northwest while over the central part of the Philippine Sea...and continues to gain strength...about 455 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM SEP 13: 14.9N 128.2E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon...as it turns slightly to northwest towards Northern Luzon...about 260 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM SEP 14: 16.5N 124.8E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 11, 2014
Location of Center: Near 11.2º N Lat 137.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km NNW of Yap Island
Distance 2: 525 km NE of Palau Island
Distance 3: 1255 km E of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 1470 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 1795 km ESE of Metro Manila
Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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