for Friday, 19 September 2014 [2:27 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG (MARIO) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Saturday 19 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Friday 19 September 2014
Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG (MARIO) continues to move closer to Extreme Northern Luzon with no change in strength. The storm is forecast to make landfall over Northern Cagayan this afternoon. A major rainfall event may occur along Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections as the storm is forecast to slow down late Friday to Saturday while over Luzon Strait.
This cyclone is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms along the western sections of Visayas and Southern Luzon this weekend. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Central and Northern Luzon, and Taiwan. should closely monitor the development of Fung-Wong (Mario).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
- Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Portions of Albay, and Portions of Southern Quezon. Read more...
- Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Luzon, Occidental Mindoro, Eastern and Southern Bicol Region, and Samar Provinces incl. Biliran Island. Read more...
- Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Rest of Visayas and Bicol, Romblon, Marinduque and Oriental Mindoro. Read more...
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday...1500 GMT.
Classification/Name: TS Fung-Wong (Mario)
Location: Over the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.0N 124.9E)
About: 275 km northeast-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 300 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 880 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 30 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Fung-Wong (Mario) is expected to move northwestward fast within the next 24 hours, slowing down while turning sharply to the north through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will be traversing the northwestern part of the Philippine Sea this morning...and could make landfall over Eastern or Northern Cagayan this afternoon...passing over or very close to Aparri tonight. By Saturday evening, the cyclone will be moving slowly as it passes very close to the southern tip of Taiwan.
TS Fung-Wong (Mario) will slowly intensify during the outlook period...and could become a strong TS on Saturday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 110 kph.
The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Just along the northern coast of Cagayan...about 35 km west-northwest of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM SEP 19: 18.5N 121.4E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a strong TS as it turns north to north-northeast near the Southern tip of Taiwan...about 125 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [8PM SEP 20: 21.4N 120.8E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it nears Typhoon strength while moving across the East China Sea...about 185 km northeast of Taipei, Taiwan [8PM SEP 21: 25.8N 123.2E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 18, 2014
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 270 km NNE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 3: 325 km NNE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 335 km NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 290 km SE of Palanan, Isabela
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA / MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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