Sunday, September 14, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #010


for Sunday, 14 September 2014 [7:49 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Sunday 14 September 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) has maintained its strength and west-northwest track, and continues to endanger Northern Luzon. The potential landfall area shall be over the eastern shores of Northern Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening, Sep 14.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Mindanao.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy to Extreme Rains (50-100 mm or more): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong to Very Strong Winds (gusts of 75-100 kph or more): Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the west-central part of the Philippine Sea (near 16.0N 125.3E)
About: 290 km north-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 345 km eastt of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 610 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 26 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Early Evening [between 5PM-8PM PhT]


TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to continue moving west-northwest as it accelerates throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...and will make landfall over Eastern Isabela by late Sunday afternoon or evening...crossing Northern Luzon until early Monday morning...and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday afternoon.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 150 kph by Sunday afternoon...and will decrease to just 120 kph as it cosses land.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens after crossing land...about to leave the coasts of Ilocos...about 35 km south-southwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM SEP 15: 17.9N 120.5E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating across the West Philippine Sea through South China Sea as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...regains strength...about 255 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM SEP 16: 19.9N 114.4E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it traverses the southern shores of Southern China...about 45 km north-northeast of Mong Cai City, China [2AM SEP 17: 21.9N 108.1E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 14, 2014
Location of Center: Near 16.0º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 365 km NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 350 km NE of Metro Naga
Distance 4: 330 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 5: 395 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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