Thursday, September 18, 2014

TD 16W (MARIO) Update #001


for Wednesday, 17 September 2014 [11:45 PM PhT]


Issued at: 10:00 PM PhT (14:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday 18 September 2014

The strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the Caroline Islands, east of the Visayas becomes Tropical Depression 16W, locally named MARIO. Its initial forecast track shows a path that will bring it close to Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

This cyclone is likely to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms along the western sections of Visayas and Southern Luzon this weekend. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Eastern Luzon, and Taiwan. should closely monitor the development of 16W (Mario).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.


  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Eastern Visayas, Some portions of Central Visayas, and Caraga Region. Read more...


As of 8:00 PM PhT today...1200 GMT.

Classification/Name: TD 16W (Mario)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.6N 131.2E)
About: 630 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 765 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 870 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 33 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea


TD 16W (Mario) is expected to continue move northwestward within the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north-northwestward through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TD 16W (Mario) will be traversing central part of the Philippine Sea on Thursday evening...and could be nearing Extreme Northern Luzon oro over the southern portion of the North Philippine Sea by Friday evening.

TD 16W (Mario) will slowly intensify throughout the forecast outlook...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) on Thursday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Friday evening.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Becomes a TS as it moves across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 375 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM SEP 18: 15.1N 127.3E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Strengthens further as it nears the eastern shoreline of Cagayan turns more northwesterly...about 205 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM SEP 19: 18.1N 124.1E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Recurves toward the north-northeast...becomes a strong TS...about 295 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [8PM SEP 20: 22.5N 123.9E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 17, 2014
Location of Center: Near 12.6º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 715 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 780 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 3: 815 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 850 km ESE of Iriga City
Distance 5: 875 km ESE of Metro Naga
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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