Friday, September 12, 2014

TS 15W (LUIS) Update #003.


for Friday, 12 September 2014 [2:29 PM PhT]


Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 12 September 2014

15W (LUIS) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm (TS) based on the latest satellite analysis...threatens Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over Aurora-Isabela by early Sunday evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend. 
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of 15W (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...


As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS 15W (Luis)
Location: Over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.9N 131.4E)
About: 695 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 780 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 440 km (Midget)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 33 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon


TS 15W (Luis) is expected to move west to west-northwest during the next 24 hours...slowing down while turning more west-northwestward through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TD 15W will be moving across the central part of the Philippine Sea by Sunday morning as it approaches the eastern shoreline of Aurora.

TS 15W (Luis) will continue gaining strength throughout the forecast period as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Sunday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a strong Tropical Storm as it continues to move West to WNW across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 365 km east of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM SEP 13: 14.3N 127.6E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Slows down slightly while over the central part of the Philippine Sea...strengthens into a Typhoon...about 205 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM SEP 14: 15.9N 124.0E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Just along the west coast of Ilocos Sur after traversing Northern Luzon...weakens into a strong Tropical Storm...about 55 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM SEP 15: 17.4N 119.9E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 12, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.9º N Lat 131.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 750 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 775 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 835 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 885 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 1030 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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