Saturday, September 13, 2014

TS KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #007


for Saturday, 13 September 2014 [1:42 PM PhT]


Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) had sharply turned its course to the northwest during the past six hours...continues to gain strength and threatening more Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over the eastern shores of Central Isabela on Sunday evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more...


As of 11:00 AM PhT today...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.8N 128.0E)
About: 455 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 430 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 100 kph near the center...Gustiness: 130 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 445 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 65 km from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 30 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Evening [between 6PM-9PM PhT]


TS Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to move generally west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the western part of the Philippine Sea...and will make landfall over Eastern Isabela on Sunday evening...crossing Northern Luzon through Monday morning.

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph on Sunday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it turns WNW across the western part of the Philippine Sea...about 295 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM SEP 14: 16.4N 125.1E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Emerging over the West Philippine Sea just off the coast of Ilocos Province...weakens slightly...about 100 km west northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM SEP 15: 17.9N 119.5E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Reintensifies as it traverses the South China Sea...after exiting the northwestern border of P.A.R...about 270 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM SEP 16: 19.8N 114.4E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 13, 2014
Location of Center: Near 14.8º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 450 km NE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 415 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 500 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 535 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 650 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS KALMAEGI (LUIS)...go visit our website @:


:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:

Copyright © 2014     All Rights Reserved


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)



No comments: