Saturday, September 13, 2014

TS KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #006.


for Saturday, 13 September 2014 [7:34 AM PhT]


Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014
Next Update: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Saturday 13 September 2014

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (LUIS) has intensified slightly as it maintains its track and continues to threaten Central and Northern Luzon including the Bicol Region. The potential landfall area shall be over Isabela on Sunday late afternoon or early evening, Sep 14.

This storm is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of Visayas and Mindanao including Palawan this weekend.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (Luis).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rains (50-100 mm): Eastern Visayas, Most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region. Read more...

Strong Winds (75-100 kph): Northern Aurora, Northeastern portion of Quirino, Eastern Isabela, Northern and Eastern Cagayan, Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Northwestern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan Islands. Read more...


As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 13.6N 129.1E)
About: 460 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 530 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and south of the center): 100 to 300 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 390 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): Near the Center
Past Movement: West-Southwest to West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 21 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Isabela: Sunday Late Afternoon or Early Evening [between 4PM-7PM PhT]


TS Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to move generally west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TS Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving towards the central and western parts of the Philippine Sea by Sunday early morning...and will make landfall along the eastern shores of Central Isabela on Sunday late afternoon or early evening.

TS KALMAEGI (Luis) will continue gaining strength through 36 hours as it traverses the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...and could become a Typhoon within the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph before it makes landfall on Sunday late afternoon or early evening.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it turns WNW across the central part of the Philippine Sea...about 240 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM SEP 14: 15.8N 125.6E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the western part of Ilocos Sur...weakens into a Tropical Storm...about 20 km east of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM SEP 15: 17.6N 120.5E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Typhoon intensiy as it traverses the West Philippine and South china Seas...already outside P.A.R. about 330 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM SEP 16: 19.6N 115.7E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 13, 2014
Location of Center: Near 13.6º N Lat 129.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 2: 530 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 575 km E of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 640 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 5: 805 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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