for Monday, 15 September 2014 [9:20 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON KALMAEGI (LUIS) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 16 September 2014
Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) has grown in size as it continues to move faster across the northwestern part of the South China Sea...threatens Hainan Island, the Leizhou Peninsula of Southern China and Northern Vietnam.
This cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms along the Western sections of Luzon including Palawan, Mindoro, Spratly Islands, and Scarborough Shoal. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms . Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Southern China especially Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam. should closely monitor the development of Kalmaegi (Luis).
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.
CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.
CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION
As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT.
Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the northwestern part of the South China Sea (near 18.7N 115.0E)
About: 400 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China...or 595 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation (Cloud-based, in diameter): 1,846 km (Very Large)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 100 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 30 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 26 kph
Towards: Hainan Island-Leizhou Peninsula Area
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving across the northwestern part of the South China Sea towards Hainan tonight...and cross Northernmost part of Hainan Island, very near Leizhou Peninsula on Tuesday afternoon. It will then traverse the northern part of the Gulf of Tonkin on Tuesday evening...making landfall over Northern Vietnam, very near Halong Bay by early Wednesday morning...passing very close to the north of Hanoi, Vietnam.
TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will slightly intensify within 24 hours as it traverses the warm waters of the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Tuesday morning.
The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary for this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Traverses the extreme northern part of Hainan Island with a decrease in its intensity...about 55 km northwest of Haikou City, Hainan [2PM SEP 16: 20.3N 109.9E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves across the western part of Northern Vietnam...about 310 km west-northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM SEP 17: 22.0N 103.0E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 15, 2014
Location of Center: Near 18.7º N Lat 115.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km SSE of Macao, China
Distance 2: 475 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 515 km SE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 585 km NW of Vigan City
Distance 5: 550 km SE of Zhanjiang City, China
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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