Monday, September 15, 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) Update #013


for Monday, 15 September 2014 [1:45 AM PhT]


Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014
Next Update: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Monday 15 September 2014

Typhoon KALMAEGI (LUIS) is now emerging over the west coast of Ilocos Norte after crossing Northern Luzon in a swift west to west-northwest track...likely to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.

This storm will still continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the Rest of Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas today.
The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon. should closely monitor the development of KALMAEGI (LUIS).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

Heavy to Extreme Rains (50-100 mm or more): Rest of Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Read more...

Strong to Very Strong Winds (gusts of 75-100 kph or more): Northern Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Coastal areas of Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, Northern portion of Ilocos Sur, Northern Benguet, Northwestern part of Abra, and Babuyan-Calayan-Batanes Islands. Read more...


As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Kalmaegi (Luis)
Location: Over the West Coast of Ilocos Norte (near 18.1N 120.3E)
About: 30 km west of Laoag...or 55 km North of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 120 kph near the center...Gustiness: 150 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in diameter): 610 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 85 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 37 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 15 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


TY Kalmaegi (Luis) is expected to move swiftly west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Kalmaegi (Luis) will be moving across the West Philippine Sea today...and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Monday evening. By Tuesday evening, Kalmaegi will be making landfall anew over Leizhou Peninsula in Southern China and over Northern Vietnam.

TY KALMAEGI (Luis) will weaken temporarily after traversing the mountain ranges of Northern Luzon. This system will regain Typhoon intensity while moving across the warm waters of the South China Sea on Tuesday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kph by Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Moves across the South China Sea...after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 350 km south-southeast of Hong Kong of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM SEP 15: 19.3N 115.2E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Reintensifies as it traverses Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong, China...about 105 km east-southeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [8PM SEP 16: 21.1N 108.9E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm while moving over Northern Vietnam...about 375 km west-northwest of Hanoi City, Vietnam [8PM SEP 17: 21.9N 102.4E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 14, 2014
Location of Center: Near 18.1º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km SW of Pagudpud, Isabela
Distance 2: 160 km NW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 800 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 195 km NNW of Baguio City City
Distance 5: 185 km SW of Calayan Island

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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