Saturday, December 23, 2017

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 08


Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 08


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) has maintained its intensity after it interacts with the landmass of Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga Sibugay. It moved westward at a forward speed of 26 km/hr over the western coast of Zamboanga del Norte or southeastern part of the Sulu Sea. It is expected to landfall over the southern tip of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24). Its rainbands will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains across Zamboanga Peninsula, Southwestern Visayas, and Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to intensify into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves westward at a speed of 16 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, MIMAROPA, and Western Mindanao.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 22…1500 GMT. The center was located over the western coast of Zamboanga del Norte or southeastern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.9N 121.6E), about 149 km north-northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan or 202 km west of Pagadian City, Zamboanga del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 26 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the southern tip of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Southwestern Visayas, Western Mindanao, and Palawan – Today through Saturday evening (Dec 23).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) while over the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea, continues to threaten Southern Palawan…about 254 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 23: 7.7N 118.5E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EVENING: Over the West Philippine Sea after it traverses over the southern tip of Palawan as a Typhoon (TY), already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 621 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 24: 8.6N 113.3E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 445 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri December 22, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.9º N Lat 121.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 213 km WSW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga del Norte
Distance 2: 225 km SSW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 232 km SW of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 244 km SW of Dumaguete  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 744 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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