Friday, December 22, 2017

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 04


Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 04


Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Friday 22 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 22 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) has slightly intensified as it moved westward at a speed of 17 km/hr over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea. It expected to landfall along the Davao Oriental-Surigao del Sur Area by tomorrow early morning (Dec 22) between 2-3 am. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions and be on high alert for potential flash floods, landslides, and lightning strikes.

24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to continue moving westward at a forward speed of 24 km/hr, and will traverse the southern parts of Surigao del Sur and Agusan del Sur, Bukidnon, and Eastern Lanao del Norte, Southern Misamis Occidental, and Eastern Zamboanga del Norte by tomorrow morning (Dec 22).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Eastern, Northern, and Central Mindanao.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 21…1500 GMT. The center was located over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.4N 127.1E), about 92 km east-northeast of Bislig City, Surigao del Sur or 153 km east-southeast of Bayugan City, Agusan del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 17 kph, towards Davao Oriental-Surigao del Sur Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the coasts of Davao Oriental-Surigao del Sur Area by Friday early morning (Dec 22) (between 2-3am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern and Central Visayas, and Northern, Eastern, and Central Mindanao – Beginning today through Friday evening (Dec 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Maintains its intensity after interacting with the landmass of Mindanao, emerges over the northern coast of Zamboanga del Norte…about 88 km west-southwest of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga del Norte [8PM Dec 22: 8.2N 122.6E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the southwestern part of the Sulu Sea…about 221 km south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 23: 8.1N 118.1E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon (TY) after traversing over the Southern Tip of Palawan and emerges over the West Philippine Sea, already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 648 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 24: 8.8N 113.0E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day.. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 470 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu December 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.4º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 182 km ESE of Butuan City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 2: 190 km ESE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan del Norte
Distance 3: 219 km E of Malaybalay City, Bukidnon
Distance 4: 225 km ESE of Gingoog City, Misamis Oriental
Distance 5: 951 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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