Thursday, December 21, 2017

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 02


Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 02





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 21 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 21 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TEMBIN (VINTA) rapidly strengthened into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerated more to the west, closer to Eastern Mindanao.  Landfall likely along the Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by early tomorrow morning (Dec 22).

24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to move west-southwestward at a speed of 17 km/hr, and will traverse the northern parts of Compostela Valley and Davao Del Norte by tomorrow morning (Dec 22).  This storm is likely to gain more strength before it makes landfall and weaken thereafter.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Eastern Mindanao particularly Compostela Valley, Davao and Caraga Regions.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 21…0300 GMT.  The center was located over the Northern part of the South Philippine Sea (near 8.5N 129.0E), about 300 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 349 km east-northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 28 kph, towards Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the shorelines of Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by Early Friday Morning (between 4-5am), with a High  Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Caraga Region, Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental, Eastern Visayas – Beginning today through Friday (Dec 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Traversing the northern part of Davao De Norte as it tracks due west across Central Mindanao and weakens…about 39 km east north of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte [8AM Dec 22: 7.8N 125.8E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SATURDAY MORNING: Emerges over west of Zamboanga Peninsula or over the Sulu Sea, starts to re-intensify and becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 184 km northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan [8AM Dec 23: 7.9N 121.0E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon after traversing Southern Palawan and emerges over the West Philippine Sea…about 312 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 24: 8.8N 116.2E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day.. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 585 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu December 21, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.5º N Lat 129.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km ENE of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 387 km E of Cabdbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 407 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 4: 427 km E of Valencia City, Bukidnon
Distance 5: 1097 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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