Saturday, December 16, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 08


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 08


Issued at: 12:10 AM PhT (16:10 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it remains quasi-stationary near the eastern coast of Eastern Samar. Its rainbands continues to bring moderate to heavy rains across Eastern, Central, and Western Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, and Northeastern sections of Mindanao.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves west-northwestward at a forward speed of 13 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday evening (Dec 16).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern sections of Quezon, Eastern and Central Visayas, Eastern sections of Western Visayas, and Northeastern sections of Mindanao.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 15…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 127.5E), about 204 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 279 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the coast of Northern Samar on Saturday Evening, Dec 16 (approx. between 10-11 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Southern sections of Quezon, Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Northern sections of Cebu, and Dinagat Islands – Today through Saturday evening (Dec 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves west-northwestward approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar…about 104 km northeast of Calbayog City, Samar [8PM Dec 16: 12.7N 125.3E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after interacting with the terrains of Northern Samar, Northern Masbate, Northern Aklan, and Northern Antique, over the northeastern part of the Sulu Sea…about 125 km west of Roxas City, Capiz [8PM Dec 17: 11.7N 121.6E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

MONDAY EVENING: Reemerges over the West Philippine Sea as a Tropical Depression (TD)…about 190 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Dec 18: 11.3N 117.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 725 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri December 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.6º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 298 km NE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 314 km NNE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 321 km E of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 349 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 772 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: