Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 04

TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 04 Issued at: 12:35 AM PhT (16:35 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it relocates east-northeastward near the coast of Eastern Samar in the past 6 hours at a forward speed of 15 km/hr. 24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to slightly intensify as it slowly moves west-northwestward at a speed of 05 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, east of Eastern Samar on Friday evening (Dec 15). The combined effects of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern Bicol, Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat Islands.
Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?	As of 11:00 PM PhT today, December 14…1500 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 127.6E), about 214 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 290 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	East-northeast @ 15 kph, towards the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Along the Coasts of Eastern or Northern Samar on Saturday Afternoon, Dec 16 (approx. between 2-3 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):* >> Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat and Biliran Islands – Today through Friday evening (Dec 15). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	FRIDAY EVENING: Slightly intensifies as it drifts along the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 131 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8PM Dec 15: 11.9N 126.6E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. SATURDAY EVENING: Slightly weaken as it interacts with the landmass of Northern Samar…about 38 km north-northwest of Calbayog City, Samar [8PM Dec 16: 12.4N 124.5E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after traversing Masbate…emerges along the northernmost part of the Visayan Sea…about 52 km north-northwest of Roxas City, Capiz [8PM Dec 17: 12.0N 122.6E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: LOW. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 550 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu December 14, 2017 Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.6º N Lat 127.6º E Lon Distance 1: 307 km NE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte Distance 2: 319 km NNE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur Distance 3: 331 km E of Calbayog City, Samar Distance 4: 356 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte Distance 5: 782 km ESE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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