Friday, December 15, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 06


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 06





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has slightly intensified as it still lingers near the eastern coast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar. Its rainbands continues to dump moderate to heavy rains across Eastern Visayas including Dinagat and Siargao Islands.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected maintain its strength as it moves slowly west-northwestward at a speed of 10 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday morning (Dec 16).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern and Eastern Bicol, Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat Islands.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 15…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 127.6E), about 214 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 290 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coasts of Eastern or Northern Samar on Saturday Afternoon, Dec 16 (approx. between 1-3 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Samar and Leyte Provinces, Cebu, Bohol including Dinagat and Biliran Islands – Today through Saturday morning (Dec 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it moves slowly WNW approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar…about 102 km north-northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar [8AM Dec 16: 12.4N 125.9E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

SUNDAY MORNING: Over Southern Masbate as it moves WSW…lost a little bit of strength after crossing the land mass of Northern Samar…about 43 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate [8AM Dec 17: 12.0N 123.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its TS classification while over the Sulu Sea, approaching Northern Palawan…about 106 km south of Coron, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 11.1N 120.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri December 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.6º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 307 km NE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 319 km NNE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 331 km E of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 356 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 782 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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