Saturday, December 16, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 11


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 11





Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm (STS) and is now making landfall along the Eastern and Northern Samar Border – very near the Town of  Lapinig.  Its intense rainbands will continue to affect Bicol Region, Eastern and Northern Visayas, and Southern Quezon.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to move west-southwestward at a forward speed of 17 km/hr, traversing the Western part of Samar Island tonight and shall be over the Southern tip of Masbate by early Sunday morning (Dec 17).  The storm shall cross the central part of Panay on Sunday afternoon.  Further weakening of the storm will be expected due to multiple land interactions..

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms, gale-force winds of up to 75 km/hr across Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, and the Visayas.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 16…0900 GMT. The center was located along the Eastern part of the Northern Samar and Eastern Samar Border (near 12.3N 125.3E), about 81 km east-northeast of Calbayog City, Samar or 190 km east of Masbate City, Masbate.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Southwest @ 10 km/hr, towards Western part of Samar Island, Southern Masbate, and Panay.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Southern Tip of Masbate by early Sunday morning (approx. between 1-2 am), with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Eastern Visayas, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Northern Iloilo, Bicol Region, Northern sections of Cebu, and Dinagat Islands – Today through Sunday morning (Dec 17).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Central Antique…loses strength after traversing the rugged terrains of the Northern part of Samar Island and Masbate…about 50 km west of Paasi City, Iloilo [2PM Dec 17: 11.1N 122.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while emerging over the West Philippine Sea on a WSW track, right after crossing Northern Palawan…about 157 km northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.0N 117.8E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing along the Kalayaan Island Group, re-intensifies slightly…about 405 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 19: 9.7N 115.1E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level HIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 640 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.3º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 148 km NNW of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 159 km NNE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 3: 73 km NE of Catbalogan City, Samar 
Distance 4: 213 km ESE of Tabaco City, Albay
Distance 5: 524 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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