Friday, December 22, 2017

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 06


Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 06





Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Friday 22 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday, 22 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TEMBIN (VINTA)  has weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS) after traversing the mountains of Davao Region…now in the vicinity of Southwestern Bukidnon as it moved westward and will be over the southern part of Lanao Del Sur in the next few hours, passing to the south of Marawi City.  Its core and rainbands will continue to bring stormy weather across Central and Western Mindanao today.

24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to continue moving westward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr, and shall cross Zamboanga Sibugay, passing just south Pagadian City between 6-7pm tonight.  At around midnight to early morning of Saturday (Dec 23), TEMBIN (VINTA) shall be traversing the southern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, and shall emerge over the southern part of Sulu Sea, just west of Southwestern Zamboanga Del Norte after sunrise.  It is likely that this system will again regain Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification by tomorrow, Saturday morning.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, Central and Western Mindanao, and Palawan.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 22…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of Bukidnon  or between the Towns of Maramag and Pangantucan (near 7.8N 124.9E), about 31 km west-southwest of Valencia City, Bukidnon or 70 km east-southeast of Marawi City, Lanao del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 20 kph, towards Lanao Del Sur-Zamboanga Sibugay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Currently Overland (in the vicinity of SW Bukidnon).
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Western Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, Northern-Central-Western Mindanao – Today through Saturday morning (Dec 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Emerges over the west coast of Zamboanga Peninsula, in the vicinity of the Southern Sulu Sea…re-intensifies into an STS…about 161 km west-northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan [8AM Dec 23: 7.3N 120.8E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Attains Typhoon (TY) classification as it passes the southern tip of Palawan, moving westward across the West Philippine Sea. About to leave the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…some 403 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 24: 8.0N 115.7E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to an STS, as it moves across the southern part of the South China Sea…about 859 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 25: 8.5N 111.1E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 515 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri December 22, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 124.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 86 km ESE of Iligan City, Lanao Del Norte
Distance 2: 91 km NW of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 99 km NE of Cotabato City, Cotabato
Distance 4: 108 km WNW of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 862 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information..

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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