Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W [URDUJA] StormWatch No. 02

Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W [URDUJA] StormWatch No. 02

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 96W [URDUJA] STORMWATCH NO. 02 Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 13 December 2017 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Thursday 14 Dec 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook	Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA) [URDUJA] struggling to organize while over the Philippine Sea, but could still attain Tropical Depression (TD) classification within the next 06 to 24 hours. Its western and northwestern rainbands together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao today through Friday (Dec 15).
Where is LPA 96W (URDUJA)?	As of 5:00 PM PhT, December 13…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.7N 128.0E), about 259 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 489 km east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West-Northwest @ 15 kph, towards near the Eastern Coast of Eastern Samar.
Forecast Highlights	The Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are having difficulty in predicting this system on where it will go, thus, the low confidence of our forecast track. The system's strength could likely be Tropical Depression (TD) or Tropical Storm (TS) classification as it approaches the Eastern Coast of Samar on Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon (Dec 14-15). The forecast confidence of this LPA remains LOW. The Day 3 Forecast (Dec 16) shows the system making landfall over Sorsogon as a Tropical Depression (TD) or Tropical Storm (TS) on Saturday evening, with low forecast confidence. PAGASA has raised Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. 01 across Eastern Samar. This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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