Saturday, December 23, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 09


Severe Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 09





Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

TEMBIN (VINTA) regains Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification as it moves westward across the Sulu Sea, increasing its threat to Southern Palawan. Its western rainbands expected to reach Palawan today.

24-hr Outlook: STS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to move generally westward at a forward speed of 20 km/hr and could become a Typhoon later today.  It is forecast to make landfall over the southernmost part of Southern Palawan between 1-2am tomorrow (Sunday, Dec 24), passing over or very close to the Town of Balabac.

Residents along Southern Palawan are advised to take full precautionary measures as Tembin (Vinta) is forecast to make landfall over the area.

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and STS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Sulu Archipelago, and Western Mindanao..

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 23…2100 GMT. The center was located over the South-Central part of Sulu Sea (near 7.9N 120.8E), about 199 km northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan or 406 km east of Balabac, Palawan.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph..

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 15 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the southernmost part of Palawan by Sunday early morning (Dec 24) between 1-2am, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Palawan  – Today through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Southernmost part of Palawan – beginning Saturday evening through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: Southern Palawan – beginning tonight through Sunday morning (Dec 24).

+Large and dangerous battering waves with inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above areas.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) and makes landfall over the southernmost part of the Palawan…about 278 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 24: 8.2N 117.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its Typhoon classification…heads for Southern Vietnam…about 621 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 25: 8.7N 111.8E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 490 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 20 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat December 23, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.9º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 275 km SW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 287 km WSW of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 297 km SW of Tanjay City, Negros Oriental
Distance 4: 317 km WSW of Dumaguete  City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 743 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc.. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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