Saturday, December 16, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 09


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 09





Issued at: 6:15 AM PhT (22:15 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has finally moved on a northwesterly track, closer to Northern Samar – increasing the threat to the whole Samar Island.  Its intense rainbands continues to cover the whole of the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Quezon.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) before it makes landfall over Northern Samar tonight, and shall start to turn west to west-southwestward at a forward speed of 15 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea and Northern Samar. The storm shall weaken slightly after crossing Northern Samar and shall be over the east coast of Masbate by early Sunday morning (Dec 17).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Visayas, and Northeastern sections of Mindanao.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 16…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.3N 126.8E), about 235 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar or 167 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Northwest @ 18 km/hr, towards Northern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the coast of Northern Samar tonight (approx. between 6-8 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Eastern Visayas, Capiz, Antique, Bicol Region, Northern sections of Cebu, and Dinagat Islands – Today through Sunday morning (Dec 17).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Masbate moving WSW…loses strength after traversing the rugged terrain of Northern Samar…about 42 km east-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate [2AM Dec 17: 12.2N 123.9E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further into a Tropical Storm (TS) after interacting with the terrains of Masbate and Panay Islands while moving WSW…emerges over the Sulu Sea, approaching Northern Palawan…about 139 km south of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 10.8N 120.2E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Palawan, turns westward towards the Kalayaan Island Group…about 177 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 10.6N 117.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 680 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 12.3º N Lat 126.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km ENE of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 2: 241 km E of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 3: 280 km NE of Baybay City, Leyte 
Distance 4: 344 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 5: 670 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



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