Thursday, December 14, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 02


Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 02





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 14 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday, 14 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 32W (URDUJA) has slightly intensified while slowing down as it approaches the coast of Eastern Samar. It is now known globally as "KAI-TAK" – named after Hong Kong's famous old airport.  Heavy to extreme rainfall is now being felt across  Samar Provinces. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 32W (URDUJA) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today and move very slowly west-northwestward at a speed of 04 km/hr, and shall be just along the offshore areas of Eastern Samar on Friday morning (Dec 15).

This cyclone together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will bring occasional light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Visayas and Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat Islands.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 14…0300 GMT.  The center was located over Southwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.2N 126.7E), about 108 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 190 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest slowly @ 08 kph, towards Eastern Samar.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coast of Eastern Samar on Saturday Early Morning (between 1-3am), with a Low Strike Probability of 30%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Samar and Leyte Provinces – Today through Friday (Dec 15).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it jogs NW to NNW just offshore of Eastern Samar…about 45 km north-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [8AM Dec 15: 11.4N 125.9E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly after making landfall over Eastern Samar…traverses the area slowly westward…about 57 km north-northwest of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM Dec 16: 12.1N 125.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens into a TD as it moves just along the offshore areas of Aklan…about 38 km northwest of Roxas City, Capiz [8AM Dec 17: 11.8N 122.5E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 475 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu December 14, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.2º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 211 km ENE of Baybay City, Leyte
Distance 2: 228 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 3: 145 km E of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 214 km ESE of Catbalogan City, Samar
Distance 5: 717 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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