Sunday, December 17, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 13


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 13





Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has weakened further as its main convection was rip-off by strong upper-level easterly winds hundreds of kilometers to the west (along Sulu Sea-Palawan-Mindoro Area).  The exposed center with its few rainclouds is now over the Sibuyan Sea drifting west-southwestward towards the Southern Tip of Masbate and Panay Island.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to move west-southwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 19 km/hr, traversting Panay Island today and shall be over the northern part of Sulu Sea by early Monday morning (Dec 18). This storm could be downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) if further deterioration of the circulation will be observed.

The combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, and Eastern Luzon.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 17…2100 GMT. The center was located over the Sibuyan Sea, or in the vicinity of Sto. Niño Island (near 11.9N 124.5E), about 21 km south-southwest of Calbayog City, Samar or 60 km east of Cataingan, Masbate.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-Southwest @ 07 km/hr, towards Southern Masbate-Panay Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Northern Iloilo by Sunday morning (approx. between 11am-12nn), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Western Visayas, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, and Marinduque – Today through Monday morning (Dec 18).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Cuyo Island while moving WSW…about 85 km south of Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.[2AM Dec 18: 10.6N 120.9E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly intensifies as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after making its landfall over Northern Palawan…about 227 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 9.4N 116.8E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), over the West Philippine Sea…about 480 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 20: 9.2N 114.6E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 330 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun December 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 2: 087 km NW of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 3: 132 km SSE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 4: 195 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 5: 482 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



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