Thursday, December 14, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 03


Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 03





Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Thursday 14 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has remained quasi-stationary near the coast of Eastern Samar, as heavy to extreme rainfall continues to occur across Samar-Leyte-Dinagat Provinces. 

24-hr Outlook: TD 32W (URDUJA) is expected to become a Tropical Storm (TS) and move very slowly north-northwestward at a speed of 03 km/hr and shall remain along the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, east of Eastern Samar on Friday afternoon (Dec 15).

This cyclone together with its Trough and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) – will continue to bring occasionally light to moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern Bicol, Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat Islands.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 14…0900 GMT.  The center was located over Southwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.2N 126.9E), about 130 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 211 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary, with a very slow Eastward drift @ 04 kph, towards the SW part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coasts of Eastern or Northern Samar on Saturday Evening, Dec 16 (approx. between 7-9 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat and Biliran Islands – Today through Friday (Dec 15).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it drifts NNW along the SW part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 130 km northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 15: 11.7N 126.7E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it starts to move abruptly on a SW direction towards Northern Samar…about 125 km north-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 16: 12.7N 125.7E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD after traversing Northern Samar and Southern Masbate…emerges along the northernmost part of the Visayan Sea…about 64 km south-southeast of Masbate City, Masbate [2PM Dec 17: 11.8N 123.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 385 km (Very Small/Midget)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu December 14, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.2º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 232 km ENE of Baybay City, Leyte
Distance 2: 250 km E of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 3: 166 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Distance 4: 269 km ESE of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 5: 736 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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