Friday, December 22, 2017

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 07


Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) Update No. 07


Issued at: 06:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday, 22 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 23 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TEMBIN (VINTA) has maintained its intensity as it traversed over Western Mindanao. It moved westward at a speed of 35 km/hr and is currently over Zamboanga Sibugay-Zamboanga del Sur border. It will move towards Southern Zamboanga Peninsula tonight (Dec 22) between 10-11 pm. Residents are advised to take all necessary precautions for possible flash floods, landslides, and lightning strikes. Its core and rainbands will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains across Zamboanga Peninsula and Southwestern Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS TEMBIN (VINTA) is expected to intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it continues to move westward at a forward speed of 18 km/hr over the southern part of the Sulu Sea. The storm is expected to traverse over Southern Zamboanga Peninsula tonight (Dec 22).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS TEMBIN (VINTA) – will bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, Palawan, and Central and Western Mindanao.

Where is TEMBIN (VINTA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 22…0900 GMT.. The center was located over the Zamboanga Sibugay-Zamboanga del Sur border (near 7.8N 123.0E), about 36 km north-northwest of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Sur or 82 km west-southwest of Tangub City, Misamis Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 35 kph, towards Southern Zamboanga Peninsula-Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Southern Zamboanga Peninsula tonight (Dec 22) between 10-11 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Western Visayas, Sulu Archipelago, and Central and Western Mindanao – Today through Saturday afternoon (Dec 23).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) after it interacts with the landmass of Southern Zamboanga Peninsula, over the southern part of the Sulu Sea…about 272 km west-northwest of Lamitan City, Basilan [2PM Dec 23: 7.2N 119.7E @ 100kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Passes over the southern tip of Palawan as a Typhoon (TY), already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 495 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Dec 24: 8.3N 114.6E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 580 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Fri December 22, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.8º N Lat 123.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 94 km WSW of Ozamis City, Misamis Occidental
Distance 2: 115 km SW of Oroquieta City, Misamis Occidental
Distance 3: 145 km WSW of Iligan City, Lanao del Norte
Distance 4: 160 km NE of Lamitan City, Basilan
Distance 5: 782 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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