Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 17


Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 17


Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday, 18 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has maintained its intensity in the past 6 hours as it moves west-southwestward near the eastern coast of Northern Palawan at a speed of 28 km/hr. It is expected to landfall over the eastern coast of Northern Palawan today (Dec 18) between 7-8 am. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures for possible flash floods, landslides, or lightning strikes. Its rainbands are currently affecting the Western sections of Mindoro Province and Palawan. 

24-hr Outlook: TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to maintain its intensity as it continues to move west-southwestward at a forward speed of 22 km/hr over the West Philippine Sea. It will traverse over the landmass of Northern Palawan today (Dec 18).

The combined effects of the surge of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TD KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Northern sections of Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 05:00 AM PhT today, December 18…2100 GMT. The center was located near the eastern coast of Northern Palawan (near 10.8N 119.8E), about 145 km south-southwest of Coron, Palawan or 302 km west of Iloilo City, Iloilo
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)West-southwest @ 28 km/hr, towards Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Palawan today (Dec 18) (approx. between 7-8am), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern, Eastern, and Southern Luzon, Northern sections of Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Tuesday early morning (Dec 19).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, near the southwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 339 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 19: 9.7N 115.7E @ 45kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a Low Pressure Area (LPA), over the West Philippine Sea…about 600 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Dec 20: 8.6N 113.5E @ 35kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 200 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 510 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Mon December 18, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 10.8º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 318 km WNW of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental
Distance 2: 332 km WSW of Roxas City, Capiz
Distance 3: 347 km W of Bacolod City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 348 km WNW of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 441 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: