Friday, December 15, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 05


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 05





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The strengthening Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has remained almost stationary during the past 6 hours while drifting westward at 04 km/hr.  The intense western rainbands  spreading across Eastern and Central Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to still intensify slightly as it moves slowly northwestward at a speed of 07 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, east of Northern Samar on Saturday early morning (Dec 16)..

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Southern and Eastern Bicol, Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao…becoming more frequent along Samar and Leyte Provinces including Dinagat Islands.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 15…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.6N 127.4E), about 193 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 269 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Westward @ 04 kph, towards the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coasts of Eastern or Northern Samar on Saturday Afternoon, Dec 16 (approx. between 1-3 pm), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Samar and Leyte Provinces, Cebu, Bohol including Dinagat and Biliran Islands – Today through Saturday morning (Dec 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly intensifies as it moves slowly NW along the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 137 km northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar [2AM Dec 16: 12.4N 126.4E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens after making landfall and interacting with the landmass of Northern Samar. Moving on a WSW direction across the NW part of Northern Samar…about 33 km northwest of Calbayog City, Samar [2AM Dec 17: 12.3N 124.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

SUNDAY EVENING: Maintains its TS classification after traversing Masbate, and emerging over the Sulu Sea…about 124 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan [2AM Dec 18: 11.7N 121.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 675 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri December 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.6º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 291 km NE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 309 km NNE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 310 km E of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 4: 343 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 762 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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