Tropical Depression KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 14

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAI-TAK (URDUJA) UPDATE NO. 14 Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017 Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 17 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook	KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is now in the vicinity of Mandaon, Masbate as it weakened into a Tropical Depression (TD). 24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to move west-southwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 22 km/hr, and shall pass over Northwestern Aklan or very close to Boracay late this afternoon. It shall be over Northern Palawan by tomorrow morning (Monday, Dec 18) with decreased wind speeds of 45 km/hr. The combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern Quezon, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, Marinduque, Northern Visayas, and Eastern Luzon.
Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?	As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 17…2100 GMT. The center was located over Western Masbate, or in the vicinity of Mandaon, Masbate (near 12.3N 123.3E), about 28 km west-southwest of Masbate City, Masbate or 154 km east-northeast of Boracay Is., Aklan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center…Gustiness: 75 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)	West @ 22 km/hr, towards Western Aklan-Cuyo-Northern Palawan Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)	:: Along Western Aklan by late this afternoon (approx. between 4pm-6pm), with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?	*Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):* >> Northern Visayas, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Romblon, Cuyo Islands, Northern Palawan, and Aklan – Today through Monday morning (Dec 18). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): >> None.
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+	:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**	MONDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Palawan while moving WSW-ward…about 99 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 18: 10.7N 119.3E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM. TUESDAY MORNING: Slightly weakens as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea towards Kalayaan Island Group…about 312 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 19: 9.4N 116.0E @ 45kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), just an area of remnant Low Pressure…about 644 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Dec 20: 9.0N 113.0E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH. **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info	> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme] > Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.
Additional Distances	Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun December 16, 2017 Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon Distance 1: 115 km ESE of Masbate City, Masbate Distance 2: 087 km NW of Tacloban City, Leyte Distance 3: 132 km SSE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 4: 195 km ENE of Roxas City, Capiz Distance 5: 482 km SE of Metro Manila
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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