Friday, December 15, 2017

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 07


Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) Update No. 07


Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Friday, 15 December 2017
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday, 16 December 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK (URDUJA) has maintained its intensity as it remains quasi-stationary near the eastern coast of Eastern Samar.. Its rainbands continues to dump moderate to heavy rains across Eastern Visayas including Dinagat and Siargao Islands.

24-hr Outlook: TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) is expected to intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves west-northwestward at a slow speed of 08 km/hr over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday afternoon (Dec 16).

The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and TS KAI-TAK (URDUJA) – will continue to bring moderate to at times heavy/extreme rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Southern sections of Quezon, Eastern and Central Visayas, Eastern sections of Western Visayas, and Northeastern sections of Mindanao.

Where is KAI-TAK (URDUJA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, December 15…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 11.7N 127.4E), about 197 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 270 km east of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary over the Southwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the Coasts of Eastern or Northern Samar on Sunday Early Morning, Dec 17 (approx. between 12-1 am), with a High Strike Probability of 80-90%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, Northern Cebu, and Dinagat Islands – Today through Saturday afternoon (Dec 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it slowly moves west-northwestward approaching the eastern coast of Northern Samar…about 117 km north-northeast of Borongan  City, Eastern Samar [2PM Dec 16: 12.5N 126.0E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over Aklan-Capiz border, weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after interacting with the terrains of Northern Samar, Southern Masbate, Aklan, and Capiz…about 37 km northwest of Paasi  City, Iloilo [2PM Dec 17: 11.4N 122.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Reemerges over the West Philippine Sea as a Tropical Depression (TD)..157 km west-southwest of Coron, Palawan [2PM Dec 18: 11.4N 118.9E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr.. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 600 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Fri December 15, 2017
Location of Center/Eye:  Near 11.7º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 299 km NE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 308 km E of Calbayog City, Samar
Distance 3: 319 km NNE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 4: 352 km NE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 5: 757 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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